The future of Europe is being determined today
The 79th annual session of the UN General Assembly, which began in September of this year, may seem like another routine diplomatic event. Many would imagine heads of state in formal attire delivering speeches on various global issues. However, this year’s session has significant geopolitical implications that could affect Europe, especially due to the growing influence of China.
On the surface, one of the key issues that will be focused on during the session will be ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Many will offer their proposals for peace, with some actors positioning themselves as potential mediators. But this time, Beijing seems poised to take a more aggressive diplomatic lead, leveraging the uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election to push forward its own agenda.
China, likely acting under the guise of the Global South or BRICS, is expected to promote its “6-Point Consensus” initiative for resolving the Ukraine conflict. This plan, while presented as a collective effort of nations, is essentially a Chinese maneuver to seize control of the peace process, reshaping it according to Beijing’s strategic interests. What may unfold in New York could be the precursor to larger diplomatic moves at the upcoming BRICS.
This initiative from Beijing is likely just the beginning, with its full scope and intentions set to emerge more clearly in the coming months—potentially at the BRICS summit in Kazan or during a Beijing-led « peace conference on Ukraine. » The climax of this strategy may unfold when China orchestrates peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, where both sides could be compelled to negotiate under Chinese mediation.
The success of China’s plan would be a major geopolitical victory for Beijing. It would solidify China’s leadership over the Global South and significantly erode Western influence in global affairs. More concerning is that China might use this victory to reshape the global security order, positioning itself as the main arbiter of international conflicts, sidelining international law and Western-led frameworks.
For Europe, the stakes are enormous. European capitals such as Brussels, Paris, and Berlin must recognize the danger of allowing China to impose a settlement that serves its strategic interests, especially one that disregards Ukraine’s sovereignty. If Beijing’s peace initiative succeeds, it could mark a gradual weakening of Europe’s influence in global security, reminiscent of past events that changed the fate of the continent.
European leaders must remain vigilant. What begins as diplomatic posturing in New York could soon evolve into deeper shifts in global power dynamics, potentially challenging the very fabric of European security and independence.
Mykola Volkivskyi, Researcher, The Kosciuszko Foundation Scholar
